Amathiphu e-Infogol Premier League: Izibikezelo ze-GW8, Ukuhlaziywa kwe-xG nezibalo

Esebenzisa idatha yamagoli (xG) elindelwe, u-Jake Osgathorpe we-Infogol ukhetha ukubheja okungcono kakhulu ngesenzo sePremier League ngempelasonto.

I-Infogol ingumkhiqizo webhola lezinyawo oyinguquko, osebenzisa idatha ye-Opta ukushayela imodeli yegoli elindelwe. Okuqondiwe okulindelekile kulinganisa ikhwalithi yethuba lokushaya amaphuzu ngokunikeza ithuba ngalinye ithuba lokuthola isiphetho senethi.

I-xG metric ingasetshenziselwa ukuhlola amaqembu nokusebenza kwawo, futhi isiza ukunikeza ukuqonda ngamathemba esikhathi esizayo, okubuye kusize ngokubheja.

I-West Brom vs Tottenham

IWest Brom isajaha ukunqoba kwayo kokuqala kwePremier League kule sizini ngemuva kokuphoxeka kuFulham, omunye umdlalo lapho idale kancane.

Babonise izimpawu zokuthuthuka kwezokuvikela, okuvumela i-1,2 xGA ngomdlalo ngamunye emidlalweni yabo emine yokugcina, kodwa le ndlela yokuzivikela yokuqala inomthelela omubi ezinombolweni zabo ezihlaselayo.

Emidlalweni eyisikhombisa kule sizini, ama-Baggies enze isilinganiso esingu-0,5 xGF ngomdlalo ngamunye. Kuyisudi embi kakhulu esezokwephula irekhodi leqembu elihlasela kakhulu kuPremier League kusukela i-Infogol yaqala ukuqoqa imininingwane (2014), okwamanje ephethwe yi-Aston Villa 15/16 (0,8 xGF ngomdlalo ngamunye)

Konke lokhu kusho ukuthi akufanele babangele iSpurs inkinga enkulu lapha, kodwa bazokwazi ukugcina amaphuzu ephansi.

ITottenham ishaye iBrighton ngempelasonto edlule, kwathi owawina sekwedlule isikhathi uGareth Bale wenza umehluko emdlalweni owaphazanyiswa ingxabano ye-VAR (I-xG: I-TOT 2.0 – 0.4 BHA)

Kuze kube manje kule sizini, yi-Liverpool kuphela (2,5 xGF ngomdlalo ngamunye) ube nenqubo yokuhlasela engcono kuneTottenham (2,2 xGF ngomdlalo ngamunye), njengoba iqembu likaJosé Mourinho libonisa ukuthuthuka okukhulu.

Ngokuzivikela, nazo beziqinile ngokwengxenye enkulu (1,3 xGA ngomdlalo ngamunye), iphinde iqinise umqondo wokuthi iWest Brom izoba nomthelela onzima kulo mdlalo.

I-Spurs kufanele iwine lo mdlalo kodwa ukusethwa kwe-West Brom kanye nesakhiwo sokuzivikela kufanele siyigcine ihloniphekile ngakho-ke ngithanda ukunqoba ngaphandle nangaphansi kwamagoli angu-3,5 ngentengo ehloniphekile.

Ukukhetha - iTottenham iwina futhi ingaphansi kwamagoli angama-3,5 @ 11/8

Leicester vs Wolves

ILeicester ibe yinhle kakhulu muva nje, ngokunqoba kwayo kwakamuva ngo 4-1 egolini leLeeds (xG: LEE 1.9 – 3.0 LEI), kodwa ukunqoba kwabo okuncane e-Arsenal cishe kungaphezu kwalokho esingakulindela kubo lapha (xG: ARS 1.0 – 0.9 LEI)

Izimpungushe zikhuphukele endaweni yesibili etafuleni lePremier League ngenxa yalezo zinqola ezimbili, kodwa izinombolo zabo eziyisisekelo ziyaqhubeka nokukhuliswa izinhlawulo, okuyi-0,8xG kuPremier League.

Iqembu likaBrendan Rodgers lihlomule kumaphenathi ayisithupha emidlalweni eyisikhombisa (4,8xl), okusho ukuthi bathole isilinganiso esingu-1,1 xGF nje sokungena-penalty ngomdlalo ngamunye kuPremier League, kude nokunamandla.

Izimpisi azikahlulwa emidlalweni emine yeligi futhi ukunqoba kwazo okubafanele ngo 2-0 zishaya iCrystal Palace ngempelasonto edlule bekuyiphepha labo lesine elihlanzekile kule sizini, into esesiyijwayele ngeqembu likaNuno.

Selokhu zenze kahle ngokungavamile zibhekene ne-West Ham, i-Wolves ibe yinhle kakhulu emuva, ivumela isilinganiso esingu-0,9 xGA kuphela ngomdlalo ngamunye, ngakho-ke zibuyela emazingeni eziwabonise ngesizini edlule.

Nokho, bebelokhu bezabalaza behlasela, isilinganiso esingu-1,1 xGF ngomdlalo ngamunye lapho bezama ukuthola umugqa wokuhlasela ngaphandle kuka-Diogo Jota, futhi ngenkathi ikhwalithi ikhona ukuze bathuthuke, basengacindezelwa lapha.

Ngiyabona ukuthi la maqembu womabili alingana kakhulu futhi imihlangano yawo emibili ngesizini edlule ikhombisa ukuthi kunjalo, womabili aphele engenagoli njengoba alikho iqembu elikwazile ukwakha amathuba amahle.

Lokhu kufanele kufane njengoba lezi zinhlangothi ezimbili eziqinile zishayisana, futhi nakuba ngaphansi kwemigomo engu-2,5 kuwumnyakazo ozuzisayo ngentengo emfushane, ngiyajabula ukubeka engozini ngaphansi kuka-1,5 ngentengo ephezulu.

Ukukhethwa - Ngaphansi kwamagoli angu-1,5 ku-2/1

IManchester City vs Liverpool

Umdlalo omkhulu wesizini kuze kube manje njengoba amaqembu amabili aphezulu kuPremier League ebhekene.

Imodeli yethu ibala ukuthi noma ngabe uthini umphumela walo mdlalo, anethuba elingu-90% lokuthi ozowina isicoco kube yiManchester City noma i-Liverpool, okusho ukuthi kuningi okusengcupheni kulo mdlalo wokuqala.

Uma i-Liverpool iwina, amathuba ayo okugcina isicoco aku- ~ 60%, futhi uma iCity iwina, amathuba ayo okuphinde athole isicoco angu-~57%. Ukulingana kukushiya usonqenqemeni lommese futhi nobabili ninethuba elingu-45% lokuwina iPremier League.

IManchester City ibinamandla futhi iqinile emasontweni asanda kwedlula, ivumela i-0,5 xGA emangazayo ngomdlalo ngamunye emidlalweni yayo eyisithupha edlule kuyo yonke imiqhudelwano.

Ukuthuthuka okumangazayo ngesizini edlule kanye nengxenye yokuqala yalo mkhankaso, kodwa kufike ngezindleko njengoba, ngesikhathi esifanayo, iDolobha lenze isilinganiso esingu-1,6 xGF ngomdlalo ngamunye.

Ngokombono, iqembu lika-Pep lenze isilinganiso esingu-2,7 xGF ngomdlalo ngo-19/20, 2,4 ngo-18/19, kanye no-2,3 ngo-17/18. Ngakho-ke abakwenzi ukuhlasela kwabo okwesabekayo njengamanje, nakuba ukubuya kukaGabriyeli uJesu kungasiza kulokho.

ILiverpool ibihlaba umxhwele ngendlela efanayo phakathi nesonto kulokho obekungangabazeki ukuthi isebenze kahle kakhulu isizini kuze kube manje, ishaya i-Atalanta 5-0 eBergamo (xG: ATA 1,2 – 2,5 LIV)

Ukunqoba kwabo okubafanele iWest Ham kubabuyisele esicongweni sePremier League, futhi bahlala etafuleni lethu le-xG, ngakho-ke yize imiphumela ingahle ibonakale ingathandeki, ibafanele. .

Ngokuzivikela, bebelokhu benyakaza ngezinye izikhathi (1,3 xGA ngomdlalo ngamunye) kanye nokuntula abasebenzi ababalulekile abavikelayo, okuyinkinga, kodwa bayaqhubeka nokulawula imidlalo kahle ngaphandle nangaphandle kwebhola.

Icala labo libukeka lingcono kakhulu, isilinganiso esingu-2,5 xGF ngomdlalo kuzwelonke, uSalah noMane bahlale ophikweni, nakuba uRoberto Firmino (0,29 xG / isilinganiso sokufana) manje unomncintiswano omkhulu ovela ku-Diogo Jota (0,5 xG / isilinganiso sokufana), oshaye into ecokeme phakathi nesonto.

Njengomdlalo weLeicester v Wolves, lo ngumdlalo osondelene phakathi kwamaqembu amabili asondelene kakhulu. Kungaphikiswana ngokuthi iLiverpool ibe nesiqalo esingcono sesizini iyonke, futhi ibukeka njengeqembu eliphelele kulesi sigaba, yize ukwenza ngcono ukuzivikela kweCity kwenza impilo ibe nzima kakhulu.

Le midlalo ingaba nzima kakhulu futhi iqine, kungekho qembu elifuna ukuyeka i-intshi, futhi ngibona lokho kuzuzisa i-Liverpool, engajabula ngokulingana futhi ejabule ukudlala ngemuva.

Imodeli ibala ama-55% (1,82) kungenzeka ukuthi amaReds agweme ukuhlulwa e-Etihad, ngakho-ke ukuthatha iLiverpool noma ukudonsa ku-1,9 kuwumdlalo we-guts emqhudelwaneni omkhulu.

Ukukhetha - Liverpool noma dweba @ 9/10