Malangizo a Infogol Premier League: Zolosera za GW8, Kusanthula kwa xG & Stats

Pogwiritsa ntchito zomwe zikuyembekezeka (xG) data, Jake Osgathorpe waku Infogol amasankha kubetcha kwabwino kwambiri pamasewera a Premier League kumapeto kwa sabata.

Infogol ndi chida chosinthira mpira, chomwe chimagwiritsa ntchito deta ya Opta kuti ipangitse njira yomwe ikuyembekezeka. Zolinga zomwe zikuyembekezeka zimachulukitsa kuchuluka kwa mwayi wogoletsa popereka mwayi uliwonse mwayi wopeza malekezero a ukonde.

Metric ya xG itha kugwiritsidwa ntchito kuwunika magulu ndi momwe amagwirira ntchito, komanso imathandizira kupereka chidziwitso pazamtsogolo, zomwe zimathandiza kubetcha.

West Brom vs Tottenham

West Brom ikadali kuthamangitsa chigonjetso chawo choyamba cha Premier League munyengoyi itagonja mokhumudwitsa ndi Fulham, masewera ena pomwe sanapange pang'ono.

Awonetsa zisonyezo zakusintha pachitetezo, kulola 1,2 xGA pamasewera aliwonse m'masewera awo anayi omaliza, koma njira yoyamba yodzitchinjiriza iyi ili ndi zotsatira zoyipa pakuwukira kwawo.

M'masewera asanu ndi awiri nyengo ino, a Baggies adangopeza 0,5 xGF pamasewera. Ndi suti yoyipa kwambiri yomwe yatsala pang'ono kuphwanya mbiri yoyipa kwambiri ya Premier League kuyambira pomwe Infogol idayamba kusonkhanitsa deta (2014), yomwe pano ikugwiridwa ndi Aston Villa 15/16 (0,8 xGF pamasewera)

Zonsezi zikutanthauza kuti sayenera kuyambitsa vuto la Spurs pano, koma azitha kutsika.

Tottenham idayenera kumenya Brighton sabata yatha, pomwe wopambana mochedwa Gareth Bale adapanga kusiyana pamasewera omwe adasokonezedwa ndi mikangano ya VAR (xG: TOT 2.0 – 0.4 BHA)

Mpaka pano nyengo ino, Liverpool yokha (2,5 xGF pamasewera) anali ndi njira yabwino yowukira kuposa Tottenham (2,2 xGF pamasewera), monga gulu la José Mourinho likuwonetsa kusintha kwakukulu.

Kudzitchinjiriza, nawonso akhala olimba kwambiri (1,3 xGA pamasewera), ndikulimbitsanso lingaliro lakuti West Brom idzakhala yovuta kukhudza masewerawa.

Spurs ikuyenera kupambana masewerawa koma kukhazikitsidwa kwa West Brom ndi chitetezo chake kuyenera kukhala kolemekezeka kotero ndimakonda kupambana komwe kuli kutali ndi zolinga zosachepera 3,5 pamtengo wabwino.

Kusankhidwa - Tottenham yapambana ndipo pansi pa zigoli 3,5 @ 11/8

Leicester vs Wolves

Leicester yakhala yopambana posachedwapa, ndi chigonjetso chaposachedwa cha 4-1 pachigoli cha Leeds (xG: LEE 1.9 – 3.0 LEI), koma kupambana kwawo kochepa ku Arsenal mwina ndikoposa momwe tingayembekezere kuchokera kwa iwo pano (xG: ARS 1.0 – 0.9 LEI)

A Foxes akwera mpaka pachiwiri patebulo la Premier League chifukwa cha kupambana kwawo, koma ziwerengero zawo zikupitilira kukwera ndi zilango, zomwe ndi 0,8xG mu Premier League.

Timu ya Brendan Rodgers yapindula ndi zilango zisanu ndi chimodzi pamasewera asanu ndi awiri (4,8xl pa), kutanthauza kuti adangopeza 1,1 xGF palibe chilango pamasewera aliwonse mu Premier League, kutali ndi mphamvu.

Wolves sanagonjetsedwe m'masewera anayi a ligi ndipo chigonjetso chawo choyenerera 2-0 pa Crystal Palace sabata yatha chinali pepala lawo lachinayi lamasewera, zomwe tidazolowera ndi timu ya Nuno.

Kuyambira momwe adachitira mosasamala kwambiri motsutsana ndi West Ham, Wolves yakhala yabwino kwambiri kumbuyo, kulola pafupifupi 0,9 xGA pamasewera aliwonse, kotero abwerera kumlingo womwe adawonetsa nyengo yatha.

Komabe, akhala akulimbana ndi kuukira, pafupifupi 1,1 xGF pa masewera pamene akuyesera kupeza mzere woukira popanda Diogo Jota, ndipo pamene khalidweli liripo kuti iwo asinthe, akhoza kuponderezedwa pano.

Ndikuwona kuti matimu awiriwa akufanana kwambiri ndipo misonkhano yawo iwiri yapitayi ikuwonetsa kuti ndi momwemo, onse adathera opanda zigoli chifukwa palibe timu yomwe idakwanitsa kupanga mwayi waukulu.

Izi ziyenera kukhala zofanana ndi mbali ziwiri zamphamvuzi zikuwombana, ndipo pamene zolinga zosachepera 2,5 ndizoyenera kusuntha pamtengo wochepa, ndine wokondwa kuika pangozi zosakwana 1,5 pamtengo wapamwamba.

Kusankhidwa - Pansi pa zolinga za 1,5 pa 2/1

Manchester City vs Liverpool

Masewera akuluakulu a nyengoyi mpaka pomwe magulu awiri apamwamba mu Premier League akumana.

Mtundu wathu umawerengera kuti zilizonse zomwe zingachitike pamasewerawa, pali mwayi wokwana ~ 90% wopambana mutuwo kukhala Manchester City kapena Liverpool, kutanthauza kuti pali zambiri zomwe zili pachiwopsezo pampikisano woyambawu.

Liverpool ikapambana, mwayi wawo wosunga mutuwo ndi ~ 60%, ndipo City ikapambana, mwayi wawo wopezanso mutuwo ndi ~ 57%. Kujambula kumakusiyani m'mphepete mwa mpeni ndipo nonse muli ndi mwayi wopambana 45% wopambana Premier League.

Manchester City yakhala yamphamvu komanso yamphamvu m'masabata aposachedwa, kulola chidwi cha 0,5 xGA pamasewera aliwonse m'masewera awo asanu ndi limodzi omaliza pamipikisano yonse.

Ndikusintha koyipa kwambiri munyengo yatha komanso gawo loyamba la kampeni iyi, koma zabwera pamtengo chifukwa, nthawi yomweyo, City idangopeza 1,6 xGF pamasewera.

M'malingaliro ake, gulu la Pep lidapeza 2,7 xGF pamasewera aliwonse mu 19/20, 2,4 mu 18/19, ndi 2,3 mu 17/18. Chifukwa chake sakuchita chiwembu chawo chowopsa pakali pano, ngakhale kubweranso kwa Gabrieli Yesu kungathandize pa izi.

Liverpool idachita bwino kwambiri pakati pa sabata pakuchita bwino kwambiri mpaka pano, kumenya Atalanta 5-0 ku Bergamo (xG: ATA 1,2 – 2,5 LIV)

Kupambana kwawo koyenera ku West Ham kunawabweretsanso pamwamba pa tebulo la Premier League, ndipo adakhalanso patebulo lathu la xG, kotero ngakhale zotsatira zake zitha kuwoneka ngati zosasangalatsa, zikuyenera. .

Zodzitchinjiriza, akhala akugwedezeka nthawi zina (1,3 xGA pamasewera) ndipo alibe omenyera chitetezo, lomwe ndi vuto, koma akupitilizabe kuwongolera masewera bwino pamasewera ndi kunja kwa mpira.

Kulakwira kwawo kumawonekanso bwino kwambiri, pafupifupi 2,5 xGF pamasewera adziko lonse, Salah ndi Mane nthawi zonse pamapiko, ngakhale Roberto Firmino (0,29 xG / pafupifupi machesi) tsopano ali ndi mpikisano waukulu kuchokera kwa Diogo Jota (0,5 xG / pafupifupi machesi), yemwe adagoletsa hat-trick pakati pa sabata.

Monga matchup a Leicester v Wolves, awa ndi masewera oyandikira pakati pa magulu awiri oyandikana kwambiri. Titha kunena kuti Liverpool idayamba bwino nyengo yonseyi, ndipo ikuwoneka ngati gulu lathunthu pakadali pano, ngakhale kuwongolera chitetezo cha City kumapangitsa moyo kukhala wovuta.

Masewerawa amatha kukhala ovuta komanso olimba, popanda timu yomwe ikufuna kusiya inchi imodzi, ndipo ndikuwona kuti izi zimapindulitsa Liverpool, yemwe angasangalale ndi kujambula komanso kusewera kumbuyo.

Chitsanzocho chimawerengera 55% (1,82) Kuthekera kwa ma Reds kupeŵa kugonjetsedwa ku Etihad, kotero kutenga Liverpool kapena kujambula ku 1,9 ndiye masewera opambana pamasewera akulu.

Kusankhidwa - Liverpool kapena kujambula @ 9/10