Ke hoʻohana nei i ka ʻikepili i manaʻo ʻia (xG), ua koho ʻo Jake Osgathorpe ʻo Infogol i nā koho maikaʻi loa mai ka hana Premier League o ka hopena pule.
Sabati hora 12pmE ʻike i nā pilikia a pau
Ke hoʻohana nei i ka ʻikepili i manaʻo ʻia (xG), ua koho ʻo Jake Osgathorpe ʻo Infogol i nā koho maikaʻi loa mai ka hana Premier League o ka hopena pule.
ʻO Infogol kahi huahana pōpeku kipi, e hoʻohana ana i ka ʻikepili Opta e hoʻokele i kahi kumu hoʻohālike i manaʻo ʻia. Hoʻohālikelike nā pahuhopu i manaʻo ʻia i ka maikaʻi o kahi manawa helu ma ka hāʻawi ʻana i kēlā me kēia manawa i kahi kūpono o ka loaʻa ʻana o ka hopena o ka pūnaewele.
Hiki ke hoʻohana ʻia ka metric xG e loiloi i nā hui a me kā lākou hana, a kōkua pū nō hoʻi i ka hāʻawi ʻana i ka ʻike i nā mea e hiki mai ana, e kōkua pū me ka pili.
West Brom vs Tottenham
Ke ʻimi nei ʻo West Brom i kā lākou lanakila mua o ka Premier League o ka manawa ma hope o ka lanakila ʻana iā Fulham, kahi pāʻani ʻē aʻe a lākou i hana liʻiliʻi ai.
Ua hōʻike lākou i nā hōʻailona o ka hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana i ka pale ʻana, e ʻae ana i ka 1,2 xGA i kēlā me kēia pāʻani i kā lākou mau pāʻani ʻehā hope loa, akā ʻo kēia ʻano pale-mua ka hopena maikaʻi ʻole i kā lākou helu hoʻouka.
I nā pāʻani ʻehiku i kēia kau, ua ʻawelika wale nā Baggies i ka 0,5 xGF no kēlā me kēia pāʻani. He kaʻina hana pōʻino loa ia e hiki ai ke uhaʻi i ka moʻolelo no ka hui hoʻouka kaua ʻino loa i ka Premier League mai ka wā i hoʻomaka ai ʻo Infogol e hōʻiliʻili i ka ʻikepili (2014), i paʻa ʻia e Aston Villa 15/16 (0,8 xGF no ka pāʻani)
ʻO kēia mau mea a pau ʻaʻole pono lākou e hoʻokau i nā pilikia he nui ma Spurs ma aneʻi, akā hiki iā lākou ke hoʻomau i ka helu.
Ua lanakila pono ʻo Tottenham iā Brighton i ka hopena pule i hala, me ka lanakila hope ʻo Gareth Bale i hana i ka ʻokoʻa i kahi pāʻani i hoʻopilikia ʻia e kekahi hoʻopaʻapaʻa VAR (xG: TOT 2.0 – 0.4 BHA)
I kēia manawa, ʻo Liverpool wale nō (2,5 xGF no ka pāʻani) ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ka hoʻouka kaua ma mua o Tottenham (2,2 xGF no ka pāʻani), ʻoiai ke hōʻike nei ka hui o José Mourinho i nā hoʻomaikaʻi nui.
ʻO ka pale, ua paʻa nō hoʻi lākou no ka hapa nui (1,3 xGA no ka pāʻani), hoʻoikaika hou i ka manaʻo e pilikia ana ʻo West Brom i ka hopena i kēia pāʻani.
Pono e lanakila ʻo Spurs i kēia pāʻani, akā ʻo ka hoʻonohonoho pale a me ka hoʻolālā ʻana o West Brom e mālama i ka hanohano, no laila makemake wau i ka lanakila a ma lalo o 3,5 mau pahuhopu ma ke kumukūʻai kūpono.
Koho - Ua lanakila ʻo Tottenham a ma lalo o 3,5 mau pahuhopu @ 11/8
Sabati hola 14:00E ʻike i nā pilikia a pau
Leicester vs Wolves
Ua maikaʻi loa ʻo Leicester i kēia mau lā, me kā lākou lanakila hope loa i hiki mai i kahi lanakila 4-1 ma Leeds (xG: LEE 1.9 – 3.0 LEI), akā ʻoi aku paha ko lākou lanakila haʻiki ma Arsenal ma mua o kā mākou e manaʻo ai iā lākou ma aneʻi (xG: ARS 1.0 – 0.9 LEI)
Ua piʻi ka Foxes i ka lua i ka papa ʻaina Premier League e hoʻomaikaʻi i kēlā mau lanakila ʻelua, akā hoʻomau ʻia kā lākou helu kumu i ka hoʻopaʻi, ʻo ia ka 0,8 xG i ka Premier League.
Ua pōmaikaʻi ka ʻaoʻao o Brendan Rodgers mai ʻeono mau hoʻopaʻi i ʻehiku pāʻani (4,8 xG), ʻo ia hoʻi, he 1,1 wale nō ka hoʻopaʻi ʻole xGF no kēlā me kēia pāʻani i ka Premier League, mamao loa mai ka ikaika.
ʻAʻole lanakila ʻo Wolves i nā pāʻani liona ʻehā a ʻo kā lākou lanakila 2-0 ma luna o Crystal Palace i ka hopena pule i hala, ʻo ia kā lākou ʻehā maʻemaʻe o ke kau, kahi mea i maʻa mau mākou me ka ʻaoʻao o Nuno.
Ma muli o kā lākou hana ʻino ʻole iā West Ham, ua maikaʻi ʻo Wolves ma hope, e ʻae ana i ka awelika o 0,9 xGA wale nō i kēlā me kēia pāʻani, no laila ke hoʻi nei lākou i nā pae a lākou i hōʻike ai i ka makahiki i hala.
Eia naʻe, ua paʻakikī lākou i ka hoʻouka kaua ʻana, e hana ana i ka awelika o 1,1 xGF i kēlā me kēia pāʻani i ka wā e hoʻāʻo ai e ʻimi i kahi laina hoʻouka kaua me ka ʻole ʻo Diogo Jota, a ʻoiai aia ka maikaʻi no lākou e hoʻomaikaʻi ai, hiki ke kāohi ʻia ma aneʻi.
ʻIke au ua paʻa loa kēia mau kime ʻelua a ʻo kā lāua hui ʻelua i ke kau i hala e hōʻike ana he ʻoiaʻiʻo maoli nō kēia, ua pau ʻelua me ka pahuhopu ʻole no ka mea ʻaʻole i hiki i kekahi hui ke hana i nā manawa nui.
Pono kēia e like me ka hui ʻana o kēia mau ʻaoʻao ikaika ʻelua, a ʻoiai ma lalo o 2,5 mau pahuhopu he neʻe kūpono i kahi kumukūʻai pōkole, hauʻoli wau i ka pilikia ma lalo o 1,5 ma ke kumu kūʻai kiʻekiʻe.
Koho - Ma lalo o 1,5 mau pahuhopu ma 2/1
Sabati hola 16:30E ʻike i nā pilikia a pau
Manchester City vs Liverpool
ʻO ka pāʻani nui loa o ke kau a hiki i nā hui maikaʻi loa ʻelua o ka Premier League e kū ana kekahi i kekahi.
Hoʻohālikelike kā mākou kumu hoʻohālike i kēlā me kēia hopena o kēia pāʻani, aia kahi ~ 90% ka manawa e lanakila ai ka poʻo inoa i kekahi o Manchester City a i ʻole Liverpool, ʻo ia hoʻi he nui nā mea e pili ana i kēia hakakā mua.
Inā lanakila ʻo Liverpool, ʻo ko lākou manawa e paʻa ai ka poʻo inoa he ~ 60%, a inā lanakila ʻo City, ʻo ko lākou manawa e loaʻa hou ai ka inoa he ~ 57%. ʻO ke kaha kiʻi e waiho iā ʻoe ma ka ʻaoʻao o ka pahi a loaʻa iā ʻoe ʻelua ma kahi o 45% manawa e lanakila ai i ka Premier League.
Ua ikaika a paʻa ʻo Manchester City i nā pule i hala iho nei, e ʻae ana i ka 0,5 xGA maikaʻi i kēlā me kēia pāʻani i kā lākou mau pāʻani hope ʻeono ma nā hoʻokūkū āpau.
He hoʻomaikaʻi maikaʻi loa ia i ke kau hope a me ka hapa mua o kēia hoʻolaha, akā ua hele mai ma ke kumu kūʻai, ma ka manawa like, ua hana ʻo City i ka awelika o 1,6 xGF no kēlā me kēia pāʻani.
Ma ka hiʻohiʻona, ua loaʻa i ka hui o Pep he 2,7 xGF i kēlā me kēia pāʻani ma 19/20, 2,4 ma 18/19 a me 2,3 ma 17/18. No laila, ʻaʻole lākou e hoʻokō nei i kā lākou hoʻouka kaua weliweli i kēia manawa, ʻoiai ʻo ka hoʻi ʻana mai o Gabriel Jesus hiki ke kōkua i kēlā.
Ua like ka hoihoi o Liverpool i ka waena o ka pule i ka mea i hoʻopaʻapaʻa ʻia i kā lākou hana maikaʻi loa o ka manawa a hiki i kēia lā, e lanakila ana iā Atalanta 5-0 ma Bergamo (xG: ATA 1,2 – 2,5 LIV)
ʻO ko lākou lanakila lanakila ma luna o West Ham ua hoʻihoʻi iā lākou i ka papa o ka Premier League, a ua noho pū lākou i kā mākou papa xG, no laila ʻoiai ʻaʻole i manaʻo ʻia nā hopena, pono lākou. .
ʻO ka pale, ua haʻalulu lākou i kekahi manawa (1,3 xGA no ka pāʻani) a nele i nā limahana pale kī, he pilikia, akā hoʻomau lākou i ka hoʻomalu maikaʻi ʻana i nā pāʻani me ka ʻole o ka pōleʻa.
ʻO kā lākou hoʻouka kaua ʻana i ka mea maikaʻi loa, ʻo ka awelika 2,5 xGF i kēlā me kēia pāʻani ma ka ʻāina, me Salah a me Mane mau ma ka ʻēheu, ʻoiai ʻo Roberto Firmino (0,29 xG / pāʻani maʻamau) i kēia manawa he hoʻokūkū koʻikoʻi mai Diogo Jota (0,5 xG / pāʻani maʻamau), ka mea i kiʻi i ka pāpale i ka waena o ka pule.
E like me ka hakakā ʻana o Leicester vs Wolves, he pāʻani paʻa kēia ma waena o ʻelua mau hui pili loa. Hiki ke hoʻopaʻapaʻa ʻia ua ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ka hoʻomaka ʻana o Liverpool i ke kau holoʻokoʻa, a ke nānā nei ʻo ia ka hui piha i kēia manawa, ʻoiai ʻo ka hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana i ka pale o ke kūlanakauhale e paʻakikī ke ola.
Hiki i kēia mau pāʻani ke paʻakikī a paʻakikī, me ka makemake ʻole o kekahi hui e hāʻawi i kahi ʻīniha, a ʻike wau e pōmaikaʻi kēia iā Liverpool, e hauʻoli ana me ka huki ʻana a hauʻoli e pāʻani mai hope.
Heluhelu ke kumu hoʻohālike i 55% (1,82) hiki i ka Reds ke pale aku i ka lanakila ma ka Etihad, no laila e lawe iā Liverpool a i ʻole ka huki ʻana i ka 1,9 ka pāʻani o ka wiwo ʻole i ka hakakā nui.
Koho – Liverpool a huki paha @ 9/10
