Infogol Premier League Tips: GW8 Predictions, xG Analysis & Stats

Using expected goals (xG) data, Jake Osgathorpe of Infogol selects the best bets on Premier League action over the weekend.

Infogol is a revolutionary football product, leveraging Opta data to drive an expected goal model. Expected targets quantify the quality of a scoring opportunity by assigning each opportunity a probability of finding the end of the net.

The xG metric can be used to evaluate teams and their performance, and it also helps to give an insight into future prospects, which in turn helps with betting.

West Brom vs Tottenham

West Brom are still chasing their first Premier League win of the season after a disappointing loss to Fulham, another game where they created little.

They've shown signs of improvement on defense, allowing 1,2 xGA per game in their last four games, but this defense-first approach is having a detrimental effect on their attacking numbers.

In seven games this season, the Baggies averaged just 0,5 xGF per game. It's a tragically poor suit that is on course to break the Premier League's worst attacking team record since Infogol started collecting data (2014), which is currently held by Aston Villa 15/16 (0,8 xGF per game)

All of which means they shouldn't cause the Spurs too much trouble here, but they will be able to keep the score low.

Tottenham deservedly beat Brighton last weekend, with late winner Gareth Bale making the difference in a game marred by some VAR controversy (xG: TOT 2.0 – 0.4 BHA)

So far this season, only Liverpool (2,5 xGF per game) had a better attacking process than Tottenham (2,2 xGF per game), as José Mourinho's team is showing great improvements.

Defensively, they have also been relatively solid for the most part (1,3 xGA per game), once again reinforcing the idea that West Brom will have a hard time impacting this game.

Spurs should win this game but West Brom's setup and defensive structure should keep it respectable so I like the away win and under 3,5 goals at a decent price.

Selection – Tottenham win and under 3,5 goals @ 11/8

Leicester vs Wolves

Leicester have been superb of late, with their most recent 4-1 victory in the Leeds goal (xG: LEE 1.9 – 3.0 LEI), but their narrow win at Arsenal is probably more than we can expect from them here (xG: ARS 1.0 – 0.9 LEI)

The Foxes have moved up to second in the Premier League table thanks to those two wins, but their underlying numbers continue to be boosted by penalties, which are 0,8xG in the Premier League.

Brendan Rodgers' side have benefited from six penalties in seven games (4,8xG), meaning they averaged just 1,1 xGF no-penalty per game in the Premier League, far from potent.

Wolves are unbeaten in four league games and their deserved 2-0 victory over Crystal Palace last weekend was their fourth clean sheet of the season, something we've become accustomed to with Nuno's side.

Since their unusually sloppy performance against West Ham, Wolves have been excellent at the back, allowing an average of just 0,9 xGA per game, so they are returning to the levels they showed last season.

However, they've been struggling attacking, averaging 1,1 xGF per game when trying to find an attacking line without Diogo Jota, and while the quality is there for them to improve, they can still be suppressed here.

I see that these two teams are very evenly matched and their two meetings last season show that this is exactly the case, both ended goalless as neither team was able to create great opportunities.

This should be similar as these two strong sides collide, and while less than 2,5 goals is a worthwhile move at a short price, I'm happy to risk less than 1,5 at a higher price.

Selection – Under 1,5 goals at 2/1

Manchester City vs Liverpool

The biggest game of the season so far as the top two teams in the Premier League face off.

Our model calculates that whatever the outcome of this game, there's a ~90% chance the title winner will be either Manchester City or Liverpool, meaning there's a lot at stake in this first clash.

If Liverpool win, their chances of retaining the title are ~60%, and if City win, their chances of regaining the title are ~57%. A draw leaves you on a knife edge and you both have about a 45% chance of winning the Premier League.

Manchester City have been strong and robust in recent weeks, allowing an impressive 0,5 xGA per game in their last six matches in all competitions.

It's a monstrous improvement over last season and the first part of this campaign, but it has come at a cost as, over the same period, City have averaged just 1,6 xGF per game.

In perspective, Pep's team averaged 2,7 xGF per game in 19/20, 2,4 in 18/19, and 2,3 in 17/18. So they're not carrying out their terrifying attack right now, although the return of Gabriel Jesus could help with that.

Liverpool were just as impressive midweek in what was arguably their best performance of the season to date, beating Atalanta 5-0 in Bergamo (xG: ATA 1,2 – 2,5 LIV)

Their deserved victory over West Ham put them back at the top of the Premier League table, and they also sat in our xG table, so while the results may seem unimpressive, they deserve it. .

Defensively, they have been shaky at times (1,3 xGA per game) and lack key defensive personnel, which is a problem, but they continue to control games exceptionally well on and off the ball.

Their offense also looks to be at their best, averaging 2,5 xGF per game nationally, with Salah and Mane constant on the wing, although Roberto Firmino (0,29 xG / average match) now has serious competition from Diogo Jota (0,5 xG / average match), who scored a hat-trick midweek.

Like the Leicester v Wolves matchup, this is a close game between two very close teams. It could be argued that Liverpool have had a better start to the season overall, and look to be the more complete team at this stage, although improving City's defense makes life more difficult.

These matches can be very tense and tight, with neither team wanting to give up an inch, and I see that benefits Liverpool, who would be happy with a draw and happy to play behind.

The model calculates 55% (1,82) possibility of the Reds avoiding defeat at the Etihad, so taking Liverpool or the draw to 1,9 is the game of guts in the big showdown.

Selection – Liverpool or draw @ 9/10